Headline inflation eased to 3.8% in June, while trimmed mean inflation held steady, which is a more encouraging print than was expected. However, it's still not good.
For June 2026:
⛽ Headline CPI was 3.8% YoY (⬇️ 0.2%)
⛽ Trimmed mean was 3.6% YoY (➡️ unchanged)
⛽ Tradables was 1.5% YoY (⬇️ 1.0%)
⛽ Non-tradables was 4.9% YoY (⬆️ 0.2%)
⛽ Services was 4.0% YoY (⬆️ 0.3%)
⛽ Housing was 6.8% YoY (⬆️ 0.3%)
Let's start with the good news first. Headline inflation has fallen for three consecutive months, mostly off the back of easing fuel prices and fuel excise cuts. While the RBA’s favorite trimmed mean inflation stopped rising.
Unfortunately, the fall in headline inflation appears to be a temporary situation. Oil prices have risen sharply following renewed tension in the Middle East, and July and August will see the staged phase-out of the fuel excise reductions.
Additionally, non-tradables inflation, or domestic inflation, continues to grow, showing that the core issue of homegrown price pressure has not yet been solved.
For the RBA this print shouldn’t stay their hand next month. Inflation is still well above the target band and while there has been some easing in the headline number, the