We received some rough prints on the Australian economy this morning which provide early indicators that the ongoing war in the Middle East, and the RBA’s recent rate increase is starting to weigh on the economy.
💫 ANZ Roy Morgan consumer confidence printed its lowest figure since records began in 1973, down a whopping 5.4 points to 63.1.
💫 In the same survey, consumer inflation expectations are up to 6.9%, up a concerning 1.6% since the start of March.
💫 Flash PMI was down a significant 5.4 points to 47, well into contraction territory. However, it’s key to note that service industries accounted for all of the contraction.
💫 Australian businesses reported the highest rate of input cost growth in more than three years.
Taken together this doesn’t paint a pretty picture, with early indicators that growth will take a hit at the same time as inflation picks up. Pretty much a worst-case scenario. It's still early days and lots of uncertainty remains, but these certainly aren’t the kind of numbers we’d like to be seeing.